CARBON CREDITS THROUGH MULTIPLE LENSES: Scientific, regulatory, economic, and environmental dynamics in the era of climate change.
Climate Governance; Public Policy; Carbon Stock; Sustainability.
The Earth's atmosphere is composed of various gases and particles, with nitrogen,
oxygen, and greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) being the most prominent. Among these, CO₂ plays the most significant role in driving climate change due to its long atmospheric lifetime. Reducing CO₂ emissions is therefore imperative. In this context, carbon credits have emerged as a key instrument in the transition toward a low-carbon economy, bridging science, economics, and environmental governance. Studying carbon credits through multiple dimensions is essential to understand their potential, challenges, and feasible pathways for their effective and integrity-based implementation. This research aims to analyze carbon credits through scientific, regulatory, environmental, and economic lenses to identify their limitations, opportunities, and viable applications in climate change mitigation. The specific objectives are: (i) to conduct a bibliometric review of carbon credit literature from 1997 to 2023, identifying trends, gaps, and key actors in global scientific production; (ii) to investigate regulatory challenges and opportunities in the Brazilian carbon market under Law No. 15,042/2024; (iii) to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the state of Mato Grosso, highlighting hotspots and critical emission zones; and (iv) to analyze the economic feasibility of carbon credit purchases versus internal mitigation strategies within a public university. Key findings include: the bibliometric review revealed a growing scientific interest in carbon credits since the Kyoto Protocol, particularly in renewable energy, reforestation, and energy efficiency. Literature analysis highlighted governance gaps and greenwashing risks, underscoring the need for robust regulatory frameworks to legitimize carbon markets as reliable mitigation tools. The Brazilian carbon market analysis indicated that the Emissions Trading System (SBCE) will require integrated policies, rigorous technical monitoring, and revealed both progress and critical weaknesses, such as the absence of clear sectoral targets and the exclusion of agribusiness. From an environmental perspective, the third article investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the state of Mato Grosso (1987–2023), revealing ecological fragility in the face of agricultural expansion. Carbon hotspots were mapped in preserved areas (such as Indigenous lands and conservation units), while significant SOC losses were detected in converted areas. A modest increase of 0.88% in total SOC stock was observed, accompanied by an expansion of low-carbon zones and a reduction of intermediate levels, indicating ongoing soil degradation. A positive correlation between deforestation and SOC loss was confirmed, particularly in sandy soils of the Pantanal and the Cerrado–Amazon transition region. Intact ecosystems emerged as stable carbon sinks, underscoring the need for continuous SOC monitoring to support sustainable land-use policies, carbon credit project implementation, and climate adaptation strategies. The feasibility study in a public university suggested that, in the short term, carbon credit purchases are more financially viable. However, in the long run, internal mitigation strategies, although initially more costly, proved to be more sustainable, recurrent, and aligned with the institutions socio-environmental responsibilities. In conclusion, carbon credits are promising yet fragile tools, vulnerable to regulatory failures, environmental risks, and economic distortions. Their effectiveness depends on synergistic actions among science, legislation, land management, and institutional practices. Thus, offsetting emissions in areas with high carbon stocks (such as preserved soils and dense forests) and prioritizing internal mitigation measures (like clean energy and behavioral change) represent safer, more cost-effective, and equitable pathways. This thesis, by integrating evidence across multiple perspectives, reaffirms that carbon credits must serve as a means—not an end—within a broader strategy for climate transformation.