Effect of climate extremes on fire hotspots in Brazilian agribusiness areas in Mato Grosso
fire hotspots; water shortages; agricultural landscapes.
Mato Grosso stands out as one of Brazil’s main agricultural frontiers, with significant participation in soybean production and cattle ranching. However, the expansion and reorganization of these productive landscapes occur in a context of environmental pressures and land-use changes, which may favor the occurrence of fire hotspots under water deficit conditions. In this context, this study aimed to analyze the relationship between fire hotspot occurrence and water deficit in areas dedicated to soybean cultivation and pasturelands in Mato Grosso, in the years 2016, 2020, and 2024. Soybean croplands were mapped using the Perpendicular Crop Enhancement Index (PCEI), applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. Pasture areas were mapped using the Random Forest classifier, based on Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) data. Spatial data on fire hotspots were obtained from the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), based on the MOD14/MYD14 products from the MODIS sensor. Precipitation data were extracted from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset and used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index at a monthly scale (SPI-1). The results indicated that wetter SPI conditions were associated with reduced fire hotspot occurrence, whereas areas dedicated to soybean cultivation showed greater relative vulnerability to fire compared with pasturelands when climatic, spatial, and temporal variables were considered jointly. These results reinforce the importance of integrating remote sensing, climate indicators, and land-use data to support fire monitoring and risk management in agricultural landscapes of Mato Grosso.