Will restoration species support climate change in the Cerrado-Amazon Transition?
Decade of Restoration, applied ecology, species distribution modeling, ecological restoration
Ecotones are often neglected by conservation and restoration policies, even with high diversity, evolutionary novelties and endemic species. Investigations on the Cerrado-Amazon Transition show that its vegetation is responsive to climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation. In order to verify whether species used in ecological restoration will find suitable areas throughout this transition, we modeled the potential distribution of these species, projecting such distribution for current and future climates (2070). We used eight modeling algorithms, three global climate models (GCMs) and selected models based on True Skill Statistic (TSS). Our results indicated 15 species as the most promising for long-term restoration in the Cerrado-Amazon Transition,, that is, considering the influence of anthropogenic climate changes on potential distribution of species. Approximately 66% of the modeled species presented maps of climatic suitability with significant reduction for the future.